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Reversal Chart Patterns

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Rising Wedge Reversal

Rising Wedge in an uptrend is a rally to a new high on strong volume, several weeks of narrowing, range-bound trade characterized by higher highs and higher lows with contracting volume, followed by a sharp break lower on strong volume

Rising Wedges in uptrends are usually part of larger reversal trends so the implications for the pattern are modest. Technical targets are derived by subtracting the height of the pattern from the eventual breakout level. The breakout level is determined by drawing a trend line drawn from the area of initial consolidation through the reaction high.


Rising Wedge Reversal

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A rising wedge is generally considered bearish and is usually found in downtrends. They can be found in uptrends too, but would still generally be regarded as bearish. Rising wedges put in a series of higher tops and higher bottoms.

The rising wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. While it is a consolidation formation, the loss of upside momentum on each successive high gives the pattern its bearish bias. However, the series of higher highs and higher lows keeps the trend inherently bullish. The final break of support indicates that the forces of supply have finally won out and lower prices are likely. There are no measuring techniques to estimate the decline -- other aspects of technical analysis should be employed to forecast price targets.

  • Prior Trend: In order to qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. The rising wedge usually forms over a 3-6 month period and can mark an intermediate or long-term trend reversal. Sometimes the current trend is totally contained within the rising wedge; other times the pattern will form after an extended advance.
  • Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be higher than the previous high.
  • Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be higher than the previous low.
  • Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge as the pattern matures. The advances from the reaction lows (lower support line) become shorter and shorter, which makes the rallies unconvincing. This creates an upper resistance line that fails to keep pace with the slope of the lower support line and indicates a supply overhang as prices increase.
  • Support Break: Bearish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the support line is broken in a convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break of the previous reaction low. Once support is broken, there can sometimes be a reaction rally to test the newfound resistance level.
  • Volume: Ideally, volume will decline as prices rise and the wedge evolves. An expansion of volume on the support line break can taken as bearish confirmation.

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